The First Round is over and done with and to my surprise there were two upsets. I predicted a Magic win in 7-games, so it didn’t really surprise me when the Hawks defeated them in 6 games. However, I think I speak for just about every none Grizzlies fan when I say I was definitely shocked to see them upset the Spurs in 6-games. It marked the second time that an eighth seed had defeated a number one seed in a 7-game series (the first was when the Warriors defeated the Mavs in 2007).
I expect the Spurs to break up their entire team next season, but in order to do that, two of the three “big 3” will have to be traded. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tony Parker and Tim Duncan where the two players traded. As far as the Magic goes, there are only two directions the team can take. The first would be to blow up the entire team once again, but unfortunately the likelihood of that happening is very slim because the Magic are loaded with bad contracts. The second scenario seems much more likely and that is the team may try to trade Dwight Howard, similarly to what the Nuggets did with Carmelo and as you would expect, every team will be interested. I think this is the Magic best course of action, because they could leverage Dwight to unload some of their other bad contracts. You can expect the Lakers to put a package together that will include Bynum, the Knicks a package that include Stoudemire, the Nets a package that will include Lopez, the Heat a package that will include Bosh and the list goes on. But this is all speculation and as of now, there are eight teams left and the Semi-Finals in both Conferences starts later today.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) LOS ANGELES LAKERS (57-25) vs (3) DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25)
This is going to be a very exciting series and I must say I am really afraid for the Lakers, mainly because of how soft Pau Gasol was against the Hornets. The Mavericks will not go easy on Pau, especially after watching him play the Hornets. I expect the Lakers to win the series, but it will definitely be a dogfight which will eventually come down to Kobe vs Dirk.
The key for the Lakers will have to be the interior play of Pau, Lamar and Bynum. In 3 regular season games the Lakers trio averaged a combined 51.7 points and 25.4 rebounds per game. There is absolute no way the Mavericks can beat Lakers if they allow the Lakers big men to average anywhere close to what they did in the regular season.
On the Mavericks side, you can expect Dirk to cancel out Kobe, which means the two Jasons and their two headed centers will have to be the keys to them winning the series. In the backcourt Jason Kidd and Jason Terry will have to average at least 30points and 12 assists per game between them. The Mavs center combo of Tyson Chandler and Brandon Haywood will have to average at least 20 points and 20 plus rebounds. If that happens and Dirk outplays Kobe, the Mavericks will defeat the Lakers in the series.
The reason I am picking the Lakers is because I believe Kobe has a slight edge over Dirk. Also, the Lakers bigs are more likely to average 50 points and 25 rebounds than it is for the Mavs Jasons to average 30 points and 12 assist along with Chandler and Haywood posting a combined 20/20 average for the entire series.
LAKERS in 7
(4) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27) vs (8) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (46-36)
Kevin Durant is going to be facing an entirely different defense when the Thunder faces the Grizzlies. He will be defended by both Tony Allen and Shane Battier and that combination will bring out the best in Durant. Against the Nuggets, especially in the closeout game when Durant scored 41 points, there were some media folks already proclaiming that he was the best player in the league, wow! As if Lebron, Kobe, D-Wade or Dwight never had big closeout games, or maybe it’s simply because the kid is only 22 years old with talents off the charts.
The key for OKC has to be the play of Kevin Durant. During the regular season he averaged 30.5ppg and 8rpg against the Grizzlies, but the Thunder did lose 3 of 4 games. However, the Thunder did not have Kendrick Perkins in the lineup for any those games. Can Perkins, Mohammed and Ibaka continue to protect the paint as well as they did against the Nuggets? Also, can they provide some much needed points in the paint?
The Key for the Grizzlies will obviously be the interior play of Gasol and Randolph. The Grizzlies will win the series if Gasol and Randolph average a combined 45 points and 25 or more rebounds. That’s the first part at least, because the Griz will have to hold Westbrook and Durant to an average of under 60 points per game for the entire series.
Will Gasol and Randolph average 45-25, or will Westbrook and Durant average over 60 points? I hate to go against Durant, but I think the Grizzlies are extremely confident and still high of their win against the Spurs. Durant will have to average over 35 points in this series along with Westbrook averaging over 25 points and 10 or more assist for the Thunder to beat the Grizzlies and I just don’t see that happening.
GRIZZLIES in 6
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) CHICAGO BULLS (62-20) vs (5) ATLANTA HAWKS (44-38)
The Chicago Bulls just got a lucky break as if they needed any, because they may be facing the Hawks without Kirk Hinrich in the lineup, due to a hamstring injury. Hopefully Kirk can return by the time the Hawks return home by game 3, if not, you can expect this to be a very quick series. Without Hinrich, who is an excellent defender, D-Rose will return back to his MVP form because there is no other player on the Hawks that can slow him down.
The key for the Bulls has to be the offensive output of Carlos Boozer. During the First Round, Carlos did not perform up to his $80 million contract the Bulls signed him to last summer. He did average 10.6 rebounds in five games, but only manage to score 10 points per game against Indy. Ironically, in two games against the Hawks in the regular seasons, Boozer performed even worse when he averaged 8.5ppg and 5rpg. If Boozer keeps playing terrible, the Bulls will be in a lot of trouble and his turf toe injury is sure to slow him down.
The Bulls will need another MVP-type performance out of Derrick Rose for the entire series if Boozer continues to play bad. Rose will also have to shoot better in this series. If his shooting percentage is in the high 30s like it was against the Pacers (37.1 percent) or the Hawks during the regular season (38.5 percent), the Bulls will have to rely on their defense and rebounding, which has not failed them yet. For the Bulls to lose Boozer will have to continue playing terrible, D-Rose will have to continue shooting in the high 30s, they will have to be outrebounded by Atlanta and at least three players from Hawks will have to dominate the series.
The key for the Hawks has to be Jamal Crawford, first and foremost. Can he duplicate the performance he had against the Magic, when he averaged 20.5 points per game? Assuming he does, Kirk Hinrich, the Hawks starting point guard will have to return by game 3. In addition to Crawford playing well, Josh Smith and Al Horford will have to outplay Boozer and Noah for the Hawks to upset the Bulls. Too many things have to go right for the Hawks while at the same time, everything will have to go wrong for the Bulls in order for us to see an upset in this series, which is I am picking Chicago to win this series.
BULLS in 6
(2) MIAMI HEAT (58-24) vs. (3) BOSTON CELTICS (56-26)
The Boston Celtics have one of if not the best half court offenses in the league, mainly because they have Rondo, their all-star point guard who pushes the ball in transition leading to wide open 3s for Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. The Celtics also used to have perhaps the best and most intimidating defense in the league when they had Kendrick Perkins. Shaq and Jermaine are still on board to fill that void, but though they may have size, they are far from the intimidating presence that Perkins was.
Two things must happen for the Celtics to win the series. First, Shaq and Jermaine must play a combine 40 plus minutes and be very effective both on offense and defense. A combined average of 20 points per game should suffice on offense. Defensively, they must combine to average 3 blocks and 15 or more rebounds. The problem with that is Shaq has been out for several months due to injuries so I don’t expect him to be very effective when he returns, at least not right away. The second key is obviously Rondo, the player referred to as the “head of the snake.” In this series, Rondo must average 12 or more points, 6 plus rebounds with over 14 assist for the entire series.
On the Miami side, Lebron is without question the key to the Heat winning the series. I expect him to average over 32-8-8 and shoot over 50 percent from the field. Anything less will be unacceptable, considering the Celtics have sent him on vacation in 3 of the last 4 years. One thing I will say, Lebron always looks to score against the Celtics, but in this series he will have to be efficient. The second key for the Heat will be the play of Chris Bosh. He must outplay Kevin Garnett and he might be able to by averaging 18 plus points and 10 or more rebounds. Third, Wade needs to overwhelm Allen defensively for the entire series. He needs to outplay him and he’s the better player, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t. Lastly, the Heat must turn Rondo into a scorer. If he averages over 14 assist for the series, that means the Celtics offense was in full gear, but if he averages 18 points with around 7 assists per game that means D-Wade and Lebron were able to shut down Pierce and Allen.
HEAT in 5
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