Before the playoffs started, I predicted that the Oklahoma City Thunder would face the Lakers in the Western Conference Final, but I backed off that prediction after the Grizzlies manhandled the Spurs. Going into the Semi-Finals, I truly believed that the Grizzlies would win in 6 games, and they probably might have, had they won the triple overtime thriller in game 4. The Thunder were able to win the series and find themselves in the Western Conference Finals as I initially predicted before the playoffs, and have a date with the Dallas Mavericks, which is a huge surprise considering the Lakers were the overwhelming favorite.
Let’s be honest, outside of Dallas, I don’t think anyone anticipated the Lakers losing to the Mavs, let alone being swept. Phil Jackson, the Lakers head coach with 11-championship rings had never been swept in a playoff series and was expected to lead his team to the NBA Finals at the very least, but the Mavericks pulled off the improbable by sweeping the Lake-show. I think if I had to point to one reason why the Mavs won, I’ll sum it up by saying they simply refused to take their feet of the pedal. I think this was personified by Dirk, who on several occasions, was quoted saying how he “would never forget how they were up 2-0 against the 2006 Miami Heat championship, but eventually ended up losing the series.” Now Dirk has inched one step closer to his goal of ultimately winning the championship, but Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook may have something to say about it.
Unlike the West, I looked like an absolutely genius with my prediction in the Eastern Conference. I picked the Bulls over the Hawks in 6 and the Heat over the Celtics in 5 and I was right on the money. As for the Hawks, I believe they overachieved and went as far as they could, but they simply weren’t good enough to beat the Bulls. The Hawks definitely need to shake up their roster, if they expect to compete with the upper echelon teams in the East.
In the other series, the Miami Heat finally defeated their nemesis, the Boston Celtics and watching Lebron Kneel on the court at the end of the game will eventually go down as his most memorable moment in this year’s playoffs. If the Heat wins the NBA championship, that moment would be described as the moment they finally got over the hump, if they lose, Lebron will forever be criticized for celebrating before ever winning the championship. As for the Celtics, I believe they still have another run left in them and the addition of a perimeter defender along with a solid big should put them in the position to contend next season. With the Heat and Bulls moving on, I anticipate a very exciting Conference Finals, which I am predicting will go 6 games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25) vs (4) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27)Sometimes winning the championship comes down to facing the best matchups and the Mavericks are certainly happy to be facing the Thunder rather than the Grizzlies. The Mavs were only 1-3 against the Grizzlies during the regular season, but two of those losses were only by a point, so ultimately I would have still picked the Mavs to advance to the NBA Finals. With that said, the Mavs have date with the Oklahoma City Thunder and this series is going to be a dog fight, but I am picking the Mavs because they have one ingredient that will counter the Thunder greatest strength on defense and that will be displayed in the Dirk-Ibaka matchup.
The Thunder have dominated on defense in the playoffs not because of the addition of Kendrick Perkins, but mainly because of the insertion of Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup. Ibaka is leading the NBA playoffs with 3.6 blocks in only 28.8 minutes and if he’s not blocking, changes every shot attempt at the rim and when I say every, I mean “every shot.” The problem with that is in this series he will more than likely be matched up against Dirk who can get you 40 points on only jumpers. With Ibaka guarding Dirk on the perimeter, the Thunder interior defense will not be the same. If he chooses to protect the paint instead, then you can expect Dirk to average over 30 points in this series.
In addition to the Dirk-Ibaka matchup, I believe the Mavs have an advantage because they simply have way too many scorers. The only way I see the Thunder winning this series is if their trio of Durant-Westbrook-Harden averages 75 or more points for their entire series in addition to Ibaka making Dirk a volume shooter, meaning having Dirk take 25 more shots to get 25 or more points. Personally I think the Mavericks scoring will simply be too much for the Thunder to overcome.
MAVERICKS in 7
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) CHICAGO BULLS (62-20) vs (2) MIAMI HEAT (58-24)
The Bulls were 3-0 against the Heat in the regular season, winning all 3 games by a combined 8 points. The Heat did not have Lebron in one of those games and in the second game, Bosh made only 1 of the 18 shots he took, so I am not going to put too much on the regular season. This series is going to be very different from the regular season and I expect the Heat to emerge victorious for several reasons.
Miami will go as far as their big 3 of Wade-Lebron-Bosh will take them, but I think we need to look at it from a matchup standpoint. The first thing that needs to happen, is Chris Bosh must outplay Carlos Boozer if the Heat expects to win the series. I don’t think the Heat will win the series if Bosh evens out Boozer, because Boozer’s backup Gibson more than fills in at the power forward spot off the bench. So if Bosh only cancels out Boozer and Gibson plays well, then the Bulls will win the power forward matchup, which is why it is imperative that Bosh outplays Boozer. The only way the Heat wins this matchup with Bosh playing average is if Haslem averages a double-double in points and rebounds off the bench. The problem with that is Haslem only recently returned after missing 77 regular season and playoff games. The Heat with definitely need Haslem energy off the bench, regardless of the fact that he just returned, if they expect to win the power forward matchup. I don’t expect Haslem to be much of a factor scoring wise, but his energy will be a factor before this series is over.
The second matchup that will determine this series will be Wade-Lebron vs. D-Rose-Deng-Noah. Due to the fact that the Heat have a weaker bench than the Bulls, I have to include Noah even though he is not a perimeter player like the other four. The only way the Heat can make up for Noah’s offensive rebounding an overall activity, is if Wade and Lebron can outplay Rose, Deng and Noah. By this I mean that Lebron and Wade will have to outscore and outrebound Rose, Deng and Noah if they expect to win the series, if they cannot, then someone from their bench must bring in the energy and rebounding. The key number is 50 plus points and 22 or more rebounds. The question is can Lebron and Wade average that for the entire series or, is it more likely that the Bulls trio of Rose, Deng and Noah will be the ones averaging 50-22 for the series?
If you notice, in both matchups scenarios, the one involving Boozer and Bosh, and the one involving Wade, Lebron against Rose, Deng and Noah, the key will come down to two things. One, can Wade and Lebron duplicate the performance they had against the Celtics? And two, will Haslem be the X factor that takes the Heat over the hump? Meaning, can Haslem average 8 points and 8 or more rebounds (with 3 plus offensive rebounds per game) off the bench even though he missed 77 games this season and has only play 7 minutes this post season? I doubt Haslem will be able to do that, but I strongly believe Lebron and Wade are the two best players in this series, with Rose being the third, which is why I am picking the Heat to win this series.
HEAT in 6
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