NBA FINALS
MIAMI HEAT (58-24) vs DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25)
It all started 216 days ago with 30 teams all vying for that elusive NBA title, and now it’s down to two teams, the Dallas Mavericks and the overly scrutinized Miami Heat. Before the 2010-11 season started I predicted that the Heat would be in the NBA Finals and eventually win it all, but I also predicted that their Finals opponents would be the Lakers, but as we all know the Dallas Mavericks changed that outcome with their 4-game sweep of the two time defending champs.
The Mavs used a three pronged method to post a 12-3 record in the playoffs this year, and until now have been successful in orchestrating it. First, there’s the Re-Dirkulous factor. The guy has been an absolute beast. When it seem like he couldn’t get any better, he took his game to the next level in the Conference Finals when he averaged 32.2ppg on 55.7 percent shooting while making 96.7 percent of his free throws. The Miami Heat would be in a lot of trouble if they allow Dirk to average those type of numbers against them in the Finals.
The second reason for the Mavericks success is because of how well they’ve shot the ball from the perimeter. In their final game against the Lakers, they made 20 of 32 free throws with Mavericks guard Jason Terry making 9 of 10 from down town. Up until now, the Mavs have been deadly from the perimeter, which allowed them to space the floor well given Dirk all the room to operate.
Finally, the Mavericks rebounding, especially on the offensive end has been one of the key to their success. I understand they were outrebounded by OKC in the last series, but at very crucial times, they came up with huge offensive rebounds, which has been their staple throughout the playoffs.
The Miami Heat on the other end also have a 12-3 record in this year’s playoffs and their success comes down to two things; their defense and their “big 3” in particular, the play of Lebron James, the NBA’s best player.
The Miami Heat trio enters the Finals averaging 68.3 points in 15 playoff games. Their average would have probably been a little higher, but took a dip due to D-Wade’s 18.8 point average against the Bulls in the Conference Finals. However, those numbers were against the NBA’s best defensive team, a staple that the Mavericks cannot hang their hat on.
The Heat will go as far as their “big 3” takes them, but the team’s defense is what they hang their hat on and as the old saying goes, “offense wins games and defense wins championships.” Against the Bulls, the Heat took their defense to another level and completely shut down D-Rose, the NBA’s youngest MVP. Their stifling defense held Rose to 35 percent shooting. Rose only managed to get 117 points on 120 shots. Rose only made 2 of the 13 shots he attempted with Lebron guarding him and completely disappear in the fourth quarters in games 2 through 5.
For the Mavs it basically comes down to the three things I mentioned earlier. Can Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Barea and Peja continue making perimeter shots to give Dirk room to dominate? Can Dirk continue dominating at the torrid pace that he’s been on throughout the playoffs? Finally, will the Mavs dominate the rebounding department, especially offensive rebounding? All three of these scenarios must work in the Mavs favor in order for them to defeat the Heat in Finals.
On Miami side, their “big 3” must average 70 or more points with 22 plus rebounds for the entire series. Also, their defense must slow down the Mavericks perimeter players and force them to put the ball on the floor as oppose to shooting wide open uncontested 3s. Finally, just like in the last series, they must battle the Mavericks on the boards and limit them from getting too many second chance opportunities.
If both teams play their best basketball, two things will then determine who wins the series. Defense and which team ultimately has the best player would,in which case the Heat will have the advantage. If you look at every NBA Finals dating back to over 30 years ago, the winner of every championship has always had the best player in the series. I believe Lebron James will have a better series than Dirk and finally solidify that he is the NBA’s best player.
HEAT in 6
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