NBA FINALS
MIAMI HEAT (58-24) vs DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25)
It all started 216 days ago with 30 teams all vying for that elusive NBA title, and now it’s down to two teams, the Dallas Mavericks and the overly scrutinized Miami Heat. Before the 2010-11 season started I predicted that the Heat would be in the NBA Finals and eventually win it all, but I also predicted that their Finals opponents would be the Lakers, but as we all know the Dallas Mavericks changed that outcome with their 4-game sweep of the two time defending champs.
The Mavs used a three pronged method to post a 12-3 record in the playoffs this year, and until now have been successful in orchestrating it. First, there’s the Re-Dirkulous factor. The guy has been an absolute beast. When it seem like he couldn’t get any better, he took his game to the next level in the Conference Finals when he averaged 32.2ppg on 55.7 percent shooting while making 96.7 percent of his free throws. The Miami Heat would be in a lot of trouble if they allow Dirk to average those type of numbers against them in the Finals.
The second reason for the Mavericks success is because of how well they’ve shot the ball from the perimeter. In their final game against the Lakers, they made 20 of 32 free throws with Mavericks guard Jason Terry making 9 of 10 from down town. Up until now, the Mavs have been deadly from the perimeter, which allowed them to space the floor well given Dirk all the room to operate.
Finally, the Mavericks rebounding, especially on the offensive end has been one of the key to their success. I understand they were outrebounded by OKC in the last series, but at very crucial times, they came up with huge offensive rebounds, which has been their staple throughout the playoffs.
The Miami Heat on the other end also have a 12-3 record in this year’s playoffs and their success comes down to two things; their defense and their “big 3” in particular, the play of Lebron James, the NBA’s best player.
The Miami Heat trio enters the Finals averaging 68.3 points in 15 playoff games. Their average would have probably been a little higher, but took a dip due to D-Wade’s 18.8 point average against the Bulls in the Conference Finals. However, those numbers were against the NBA’s best defensive team, a staple that the Mavericks cannot hang their hat on.
The Heat will go as far as their “big 3” takes them, but the team’s defense is what they hang their hat on and as the old saying goes, “offense wins games and defense wins championships.” Against the Bulls, the Heat took their defense to another level and completely shut down D-Rose, the NBA’s youngest MVP. Their stifling defense held Rose to 35 percent shooting. Rose only managed to get 117 points on 120 shots. Rose only made 2 of the 13 shots he attempted with Lebron guarding him and completely disappear in the fourth quarters in games 2 through 5.
For the Mavs it basically comes down to the three things I mentioned earlier. Can Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Barea and Peja continue making perimeter shots to give Dirk room to dominate? Can Dirk continue dominating at the torrid pace that he’s been on throughout the playoffs? Finally, will the Mavs dominate the rebounding department, especially offensive rebounding? All three of these scenarios must work in the Mavs favor in order for them to defeat the Heat in Finals.
On Miami side, their “big 3” must average 70 or more points with 22 plus rebounds for the entire series. Also, their defense must slow down the Mavericks perimeter players and force them to put the ball on the floor as oppose to shooting wide open uncontested 3s. Finally, just like in the last series, they must battle the Mavericks on the boards and limit them from getting too many second chance opportunities.
If both teams play their best basketball, two things will then determine who wins the series. Defense and which team ultimately has the best player would,in which case the Heat will have the advantage. If you look at every NBA Finals dating back to over 30 years ago, the winner of every championship has always had the best player in the series. I believe Lebron James will have a better series than Dirk and finally solidify that he is the NBA’s best player.
HEAT in 6
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Monday, May 16, 2011
NBA WIZARD 2010-11 PLAYOFFS PREDICTION CONFERENCE FINALS
Before the playoffs started, I predicted that the Oklahoma City Thunder would face the Lakers in the Western Conference Final, but I backed off that prediction after the Grizzlies manhandled the Spurs. Going into the Semi-Finals, I truly believed that the Grizzlies would win in 6 games, and they probably might have, had they won the triple overtime thriller in game 4. The Thunder were able to win the series and find themselves in the Western Conference Finals as I initially predicted before the playoffs, and have a date with the Dallas Mavericks, which is a huge surprise considering the Lakers were the overwhelming favorite.
Let’s be honest, outside of Dallas, I don’t think anyone anticipated the Lakers losing to the Mavs, let alone being swept. Phil Jackson, the Lakers head coach with 11-championship rings had never been swept in a playoff series and was expected to lead his team to the NBA Finals at the very least, but the Mavericks pulled off the improbable by sweeping the Lake-show. I think if I had to point to one reason why the Mavs won, I’ll sum it up by saying they simply refused to take their feet of the pedal. I think this was personified by Dirk, who on several occasions, was quoted saying how he “would never forget how they were up 2-0 against the 2006 Miami Heat championship, but eventually ended up losing the series.” Now Dirk has inched one step closer to his goal of ultimately winning the championship, but Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook may have something to say about it.
Unlike the West, I looked like an absolutely genius with my prediction in the Eastern Conference. I picked the Bulls over the Hawks in 6 and the Heat over the Celtics in 5 and I was right on the money. As for the Hawks, I believe they overachieved and went as far as they could, but they simply weren’t good enough to beat the Bulls. The Hawks definitely need to shake up their roster, if they expect to compete with the upper echelon teams in the East.
In the other series, the Miami Heat finally defeated their nemesis, the Boston Celtics and watching Lebron Kneel on the court at the end of the game will eventually go down as his most memorable moment in this year’s playoffs. If the Heat wins the NBA championship, that moment would be described as the moment they finally got over the hump, if they lose, Lebron will forever be criticized for celebrating before ever winning the championship. As for the Celtics, I believe they still have another run left in them and the addition of a perimeter defender along with a solid big should put them in the position to contend next season. With the Heat and Bulls moving on, I anticipate a very exciting Conference Finals, which I am predicting will go 6 games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25) vs (4) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27)Sometimes winning the championship comes down to facing the best matchups and the Mavericks are certainly happy to be facing the Thunder rather than the Grizzlies. The Mavs were only 1-3 against the Grizzlies during the regular season, but two of those losses were only by a point, so ultimately I would have still picked the Mavs to advance to the NBA Finals. With that said, the Mavs have date with the Oklahoma City Thunder and this series is going to be a dog fight, but I am picking the Mavs because they have one ingredient that will counter the Thunder greatest strength on defense and that will be displayed in the Dirk-Ibaka matchup.
The Thunder have dominated on defense in the playoffs not because of the addition of Kendrick Perkins, but mainly because of the insertion of Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup. Ibaka is leading the NBA playoffs with 3.6 blocks in only 28.8 minutes and if he’s not blocking, changes every shot attempt at the rim and when I say every, I mean “every shot.” The problem with that is in this series he will more than likely be matched up against Dirk who can get you 40 points on only jumpers. With Ibaka guarding Dirk on the perimeter, the Thunder interior defense will not be the same. If he chooses to protect the paint instead, then you can expect Dirk to average over 30 points in this series.
In addition to the Dirk-Ibaka matchup, I believe the Mavs have an advantage because they simply have way too many scorers. The only way I see the Thunder winning this series is if their trio of Durant-Westbrook-Harden averages 75 or more points for their entire series in addition to Ibaka making Dirk a volume shooter, meaning having Dirk take 25 more shots to get 25 or more points. Personally I think the Mavericks scoring will simply be too much for the Thunder to overcome.
MAVERICKS in 7
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) CHICAGO BULLS (62-20) vs (2) MIAMI HEAT (58-24)
The Bulls were 3-0 against the Heat in the regular season, winning all 3 games by a combined 8 points. The Heat did not have Lebron in one of those games and in the second game, Bosh made only 1 of the 18 shots he took, so I am not going to put too much on the regular season. This series is going to be very different from the regular season and I expect the Heat to emerge victorious for several reasons.
Miami will go as far as their big 3 of Wade-Lebron-Bosh will take them, but I think we need to look at it from a matchup standpoint. The first thing that needs to happen, is Chris Bosh must outplay Carlos Boozer if the Heat expects to win the series. I don’t think the Heat will win the series if Bosh evens out Boozer, because Boozer’s backup Gibson more than fills in at the power forward spot off the bench. So if Bosh only cancels out Boozer and Gibson plays well, then the Bulls will win the power forward matchup, which is why it is imperative that Bosh outplays Boozer. The only way the Heat wins this matchup with Bosh playing average is if Haslem averages a double-double in points and rebounds off the bench. The problem with that is Haslem only recently returned after missing 77 regular season and playoff games. The Heat with definitely need Haslem energy off the bench, regardless of the fact that he just returned, if they expect to win the power forward matchup. I don’t expect Haslem to be much of a factor scoring wise, but his energy will be a factor before this series is over.
The second matchup that will determine this series will be Wade-Lebron vs. D-Rose-Deng-Noah. Due to the fact that the Heat have a weaker bench than the Bulls, I have to include Noah even though he is not a perimeter player like the other four. The only way the Heat can make up for Noah’s offensive rebounding an overall activity, is if Wade and Lebron can outplay Rose, Deng and Noah. By this I mean that Lebron and Wade will have to outscore and outrebound Rose, Deng and Noah if they expect to win the series, if they cannot, then someone from their bench must bring in the energy and rebounding. The key number is 50 plus points and 22 or more rebounds. The question is can Lebron and Wade average that for the entire series or, is it more likely that the Bulls trio of Rose, Deng and Noah will be the ones averaging 50-22 for the series?
If you notice, in both matchups scenarios, the one involving Boozer and Bosh, and the one involving Wade, Lebron against Rose, Deng and Noah, the key will come down to two things. One, can Wade and Lebron duplicate the performance they had against the Celtics? And two, will Haslem be the X factor that takes the Heat over the hump? Meaning, can Haslem average 8 points and 8 or more rebounds (with 3 plus offensive rebounds per game) off the bench even though he missed 77 games this season and has only play 7 minutes this post season? I doubt Haslem will be able to do that, but I strongly believe Lebron and Wade are the two best players in this series, with Rose being the third, which is why I am picking the Heat to win this series.
HEAT in 6
Let’s be honest, outside of Dallas, I don’t think anyone anticipated the Lakers losing to the Mavs, let alone being swept. Phil Jackson, the Lakers head coach with 11-championship rings had never been swept in a playoff series and was expected to lead his team to the NBA Finals at the very least, but the Mavericks pulled off the improbable by sweeping the Lake-show. I think if I had to point to one reason why the Mavs won, I’ll sum it up by saying they simply refused to take their feet of the pedal. I think this was personified by Dirk, who on several occasions, was quoted saying how he “would never forget how they were up 2-0 against the 2006 Miami Heat championship, but eventually ended up losing the series.” Now Dirk has inched one step closer to his goal of ultimately winning the championship, but Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook may have something to say about it.
Unlike the West, I looked like an absolutely genius with my prediction in the Eastern Conference. I picked the Bulls over the Hawks in 6 and the Heat over the Celtics in 5 and I was right on the money. As for the Hawks, I believe they overachieved and went as far as they could, but they simply weren’t good enough to beat the Bulls. The Hawks definitely need to shake up their roster, if they expect to compete with the upper echelon teams in the East.
In the other series, the Miami Heat finally defeated their nemesis, the Boston Celtics and watching Lebron Kneel on the court at the end of the game will eventually go down as his most memorable moment in this year’s playoffs. If the Heat wins the NBA championship, that moment would be described as the moment they finally got over the hump, if they lose, Lebron will forever be criticized for celebrating before ever winning the championship. As for the Celtics, I believe they still have another run left in them and the addition of a perimeter defender along with a solid big should put them in the position to contend next season. With the Heat and Bulls moving on, I anticipate a very exciting Conference Finals, which I am predicting will go 6 games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25) vs (4) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27)Sometimes winning the championship comes down to facing the best matchups and the Mavericks are certainly happy to be facing the Thunder rather than the Grizzlies. The Mavs were only 1-3 against the Grizzlies during the regular season, but two of those losses were only by a point, so ultimately I would have still picked the Mavs to advance to the NBA Finals. With that said, the Mavs have date with the Oklahoma City Thunder and this series is going to be a dog fight, but I am picking the Mavs because they have one ingredient that will counter the Thunder greatest strength on defense and that will be displayed in the Dirk-Ibaka matchup.
The Thunder have dominated on defense in the playoffs not because of the addition of Kendrick Perkins, but mainly because of the insertion of Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup. Ibaka is leading the NBA playoffs with 3.6 blocks in only 28.8 minutes and if he’s not blocking, changes every shot attempt at the rim and when I say every, I mean “every shot.” The problem with that is in this series he will more than likely be matched up against Dirk who can get you 40 points on only jumpers. With Ibaka guarding Dirk on the perimeter, the Thunder interior defense will not be the same. If he chooses to protect the paint instead, then you can expect Dirk to average over 30 points in this series.
In addition to the Dirk-Ibaka matchup, I believe the Mavs have an advantage because they simply have way too many scorers. The only way I see the Thunder winning this series is if their trio of Durant-Westbrook-Harden averages 75 or more points for their entire series in addition to Ibaka making Dirk a volume shooter, meaning having Dirk take 25 more shots to get 25 or more points. Personally I think the Mavericks scoring will simply be too much for the Thunder to overcome.
MAVERICKS in 7
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) CHICAGO BULLS (62-20) vs (2) MIAMI HEAT (58-24)
The Bulls were 3-0 against the Heat in the regular season, winning all 3 games by a combined 8 points. The Heat did not have Lebron in one of those games and in the second game, Bosh made only 1 of the 18 shots he took, so I am not going to put too much on the regular season. This series is going to be very different from the regular season and I expect the Heat to emerge victorious for several reasons.
Miami will go as far as their big 3 of Wade-Lebron-Bosh will take them, but I think we need to look at it from a matchup standpoint. The first thing that needs to happen, is Chris Bosh must outplay Carlos Boozer if the Heat expects to win the series. I don’t think the Heat will win the series if Bosh evens out Boozer, because Boozer’s backup Gibson more than fills in at the power forward spot off the bench. So if Bosh only cancels out Boozer and Gibson plays well, then the Bulls will win the power forward matchup, which is why it is imperative that Bosh outplays Boozer. The only way the Heat wins this matchup with Bosh playing average is if Haslem averages a double-double in points and rebounds off the bench. The problem with that is Haslem only recently returned after missing 77 regular season and playoff games. The Heat with definitely need Haslem energy off the bench, regardless of the fact that he just returned, if they expect to win the power forward matchup. I don’t expect Haslem to be much of a factor scoring wise, but his energy will be a factor before this series is over.
The second matchup that will determine this series will be Wade-Lebron vs. D-Rose-Deng-Noah. Due to the fact that the Heat have a weaker bench than the Bulls, I have to include Noah even though he is not a perimeter player like the other four. The only way the Heat can make up for Noah’s offensive rebounding an overall activity, is if Wade and Lebron can outplay Rose, Deng and Noah. By this I mean that Lebron and Wade will have to outscore and outrebound Rose, Deng and Noah if they expect to win the series, if they cannot, then someone from their bench must bring in the energy and rebounding. The key number is 50 plus points and 22 or more rebounds. The question is can Lebron and Wade average that for the entire series or, is it more likely that the Bulls trio of Rose, Deng and Noah will be the ones averaging 50-22 for the series?
If you notice, in both matchups scenarios, the one involving Boozer and Bosh, and the one involving Wade, Lebron against Rose, Deng and Noah, the key will come down to two things. One, can Wade and Lebron duplicate the performance they had against the Celtics? And two, will Haslem be the X factor that takes the Heat over the hump? Meaning, can Haslem average 8 points and 8 or more rebounds (with 3 plus offensive rebounds per game) off the bench even though he missed 77 games this season and has only play 7 minutes this post season? I doubt Haslem will be able to do that, but I strongly believe Lebron and Wade are the two best players in this series, with Rose being the third, which is why I am picking the Heat to win this series.
HEAT in 6
Sunday, May 1, 2011
NBA WIZARD 2010-11 PLAYOFF PREDICTION SEMI-PREDICTION
The First Round is over and done with and to my surprise there were two upsets. I predicted a Magic win in 7-games, so it didn’t really surprise me when the Hawks defeated them in 6 games. However, I think I speak for just about every none Grizzlies fan when I say I was definitely shocked to see them upset the Spurs in 6-games. It marked the second time that an eighth seed had defeated a number one seed in a 7-game series (the first was when the Warriors defeated the Mavs in 2007).
I expect the Spurs to break up their entire team next season, but in order to do that, two of the three “big 3” will have to be traded. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tony Parker and Tim Duncan where the two players traded. As far as the Magic goes, there are only two directions the team can take. The first would be to blow up the entire team once again, but unfortunately the likelihood of that happening is very slim because the Magic are loaded with bad contracts. The second scenario seems much more likely and that is the team may try to trade Dwight Howard, similarly to what the Nuggets did with Carmelo and as you would expect, every team will be interested. I think this is the Magic best course of action, because they could leverage Dwight to unload some of their other bad contracts. You can expect the Lakers to put a package together that will include Bynum, the Knicks a package that include Stoudemire, the Nets a package that will include Lopez, the Heat a package that will include Bosh and the list goes on. But this is all speculation and as of now, there are eight teams left and the Semi-Finals in both Conferences starts later today.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) LOS ANGELES LAKERS (57-25) vs (3) DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25)
This is going to be a very exciting series and I must say I am really afraid for the Lakers, mainly because of how soft Pau Gasol was against the Hornets. The Mavericks will not go easy on Pau, especially after watching him play the Hornets. I expect the Lakers to win the series, but it will definitely be a dogfight which will eventually come down to Kobe vs Dirk.
The key for the Lakers will have to be the interior play of Pau, Lamar and Bynum. In 3 regular season games the Lakers trio averaged a combined 51.7 points and 25.4 rebounds per game. There is absolute no way the Mavericks can beat Lakers if they allow the Lakers big men to average anywhere close to what they did in the regular season.
On the Mavericks side, you can expect Dirk to cancel out Kobe, which means the two Jasons and their two headed centers will have to be the keys to them winning the series. In the backcourt Jason Kidd and Jason Terry will have to average at least 30points and 12 assists per game between them. The Mavs center combo of Tyson Chandler and Brandon Haywood will have to average at least 20 points and 20 plus rebounds. If that happens and Dirk outplays Kobe, the Mavericks will defeat the Lakers in the series.
The reason I am picking the Lakers is because I believe Kobe has a slight edge over Dirk. Also, the Lakers bigs are more likely to average 50 points and 25 rebounds than it is for the Mavs Jasons to average 30 points and 12 assist along with Chandler and Haywood posting a combined 20/20 average for the entire series.
LAKERS in 7
(4) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27) vs (8) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (46-36)
Kevin Durant is going to be facing an entirely different defense when the Thunder faces the Grizzlies. He will be defended by both Tony Allen and Shane Battier and that combination will bring out the best in Durant. Against the Nuggets, especially in the closeout game when Durant scored 41 points, there were some media folks already proclaiming that he was the best player in the league, wow! As if Lebron, Kobe, D-Wade or Dwight never had big closeout games, or maybe it’s simply because the kid is only 22 years old with talents off the charts.
The key for OKC has to be the play of Kevin Durant. During the regular season he averaged 30.5ppg and 8rpg against the Grizzlies, but the Thunder did lose 3 of 4 games. However, the Thunder did not have Kendrick Perkins in the lineup for any those games. Can Perkins, Mohammed and Ibaka continue to protect the paint as well as they did against the Nuggets? Also, can they provide some much needed points in the paint?
The Key for the Grizzlies will obviously be the interior play of Gasol and Randolph. The Grizzlies will win the series if Gasol and Randolph average a combined 45 points and 25 or more rebounds. That’s the first part at least, because the Griz will have to hold Westbrook and Durant to an average of under 60 points per game for the entire series.
Will Gasol and Randolph average 45-25, or will Westbrook and Durant average over 60 points? I hate to go against Durant, but I think the Grizzlies are extremely confident and still high of their win against the Spurs. Durant will have to average over 35 points in this series along with Westbrook averaging over 25 points and 10 or more assist for the Thunder to beat the Grizzlies and I just don’t see that happening.
GRIZZLIES in 6
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) CHICAGO BULLS (62-20) vs (5) ATLANTA HAWKS (44-38)
The Chicago Bulls just got a lucky break as if they needed any, because they may be facing the Hawks without Kirk Hinrich in the lineup, due to a hamstring injury. Hopefully Kirk can return by the time the Hawks return home by game 3, if not, you can expect this to be a very quick series. Without Hinrich, who is an excellent defender, D-Rose will return back to his MVP form because there is no other player on the Hawks that can slow him down.
The key for the Bulls has to be the offensive output of Carlos Boozer. During the First Round, Carlos did not perform up to his $80 million contract the Bulls signed him to last summer. He did average 10.6 rebounds in five games, but only manage to score 10 points per game against Indy. Ironically, in two games against the Hawks in the regular seasons, Boozer performed even worse when he averaged 8.5ppg and 5rpg. If Boozer keeps playing terrible, the Bulls will be in a lot of trouble and his turf toe injury is sure to slow him down.
The Bulls will need another MVP-type performance out of Derrick Rose for the entire series if Boozer continues to play bad. Rose will also have to shoot better in this series. If his shooting percentage is in the high 30s like it was against the Pacers (37.1 percent) or the Hawks during the regular season (38.5 percent), the Bulls will have to rely on their defense and rebounding, which has not failed them yet. For the Bulls to lose Boozer will have to continue playing terrible, D-Rose will have to continue shooting in the high 30s, they will have to be outrebounded by Atlanta and at least three players from Hawks will have to dominate the series.
The key for the Hawks has to be Jamal Crawford, first and foremost. Can he duplicate the performance he had against the Magic, when he averaged 20.5 points per game? Assuming he does, Kirk Hinrich, the Hawks starting point guard will have to return by game 3. In addition to Crawford playing well, Josh Smith and Al Horford will have to outplay Boozer and Noah for the Hawks to upset the Bulls. Too many things have to go right for the Hawks while at the same time, everything will have to go wrong for the Bulls in order for us to see an upset in this series, which is I am picking Chicago to win this series.
BULLS in 6
(2) MIAMI HEAT (58-24) vs. (3) BOSTON CELTICS (56-26)
The Boston Celtics have one of if not the best half court offenses in the league, mainly because they have Rondo, their all-star point guard who pushes the ball in transition leading to wide open 3s for Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. The Celtics also used to have perhaps the best and most intimidating defense in the league when they had Kendrick Perkins. Shaq and Jermaine are still on board to fill that void, but though they may have size, they are far from the intimidating presence that Perkins was.
Two things must happen for the Celtics to win the series. First, Shaq and Jermaine must play a combine 40 plus minutes and be very effective both on offense and defense. A combined average of 20 points per game should suffice on offense. Defensively, they must combine to average 3 blocks and 15 or more rebounds. The problem with that is Shaq has been out for several months due to injuries so I don’t expect him to be very effective when he returns, at least not right away. The second key is obviously Rondo, the player referred to as the “head of the snake.” In this series, Rondo must average 12 or more points, 6 plus rebounds with over 14 assist for the entire series.
On the Miami side, Lebron is without question the key to the Heat winning the series. I expect him to average over 32-8-8 and shoot over 50 percent from the field. Anything less will be unacceptable, considering the Celtics have sent him on vacation in 3 of the last 4 years. One thing I will say, Lebron always looks to score against the Celtics, but in this series he will have to be efficient. The second key for the Heat will be the play of Chris Bosh. He must outplay Kevin Garnett and he might be able to by averaging 18 plus points and 10 or more rebounds. Third, Wade needs to overwhelm Allen defensively for the entire series. He needs to outplay him and he’s the better player, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t. Lastly, the Heat must turn Rondo into a scorer. If he averages over 14 assist for the series, that means the Celtics offense was in full gear, but if he averages 18 points with around 7 assists per game that means D-Wade and Lebron were able to shut down Pierce and Allen.
HEAT in 5
I expect the Spurs to break up their entire team next season, but in order to do that, two of the three “big 3” will have to be traded. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tony Parker and Tim Duncan where the two players traded. As far as the Magic goes, there are only two directions the team can take. The first would be to blow up the entire team once again, but unfortunately the likelihood of that happening is very slim because the Magic are loaded with bad contracts. The second scenario seems much more likely and that is the team may try to trade Dwight Howard, similarly to what the Nuggets did with Carmelo and as you would expect, every team will be interested. I think this is the Magic best course of action, because they could leverage Dwight to unload some of their other bad contracts. You can expect the Lakers to put a package together that will include Bynum, the Knicks a package that include Stoudemire, the Nets a package that will include Lopez, the Heat a package that will include Bosh and the list goes on. But this is all speculation and as of now, there are eight teams left and the Semi-Finals in both Conferences starts later today.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) LOS ANGELES LAKERS (57-25) vs (3) DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25)
This is going to be a very exciting series and I must say I am really afraid for the Lakers, mainly because of how soft Pau Gasol was against the Hornets. The Mavericks will not go easy on Pau, especially after watching him play the Hornets. I expect the Lakers to win the series, but it will definitely be a dogfight which will eventually come down to Kobe vs Dirk.
The key for the Lakers will have to be the interior play of Pau, Lamar and Bynum. In 3 regular season games the Lakers trio averaged a combined 51.7 points and 25.4 rebounds per game. There is absolute no way the Mavericks can beat Lakers if they allow the Lakers big men to average anywhere close to what they did in the regular season.
On the Mavericks side, you can expect Dirk to cancel out Kobe, which means the two Jasons and their two headed centers will have to be the keys to them winning the series. In the backcourt Jason Kidd and Jason Terry will have to average at least 30points and 12 assists per game between them. The Mavs center combo of Tyson Chandler and Brandon Haywood will have to average at least 20 points and 20 plus rebounds. If that happens and Dirk outplays Kobe, the Mavericks will defeat the Lakers in the series.
The reason I am picking the Lakers is because I believe Kobe has a slight edge over Dirk. Also, the Lakers bigs are more likely to average 50 points and 25 rebounds than it is for the Mavs Jasons to average 30 points and 12 assist along with Chandler and Haywood posting a combined 20/20 average for the entire series.
LAKERS in 7
(4) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27) vs (8) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (46-36)
Kevin Durant is going to be facing an entirely different defense when the Thunder faces the Grizzlies. He will be defended by both Tony Allen and Shane Battier and that combination will bring out the best in Durant. Against the Nuggets, especially in the closeout game when Durant scored 41 points, there were some media folks already proclaiming that he was the best player in the league, wow! As if Lebron, Kobe, D-Wade or Dwight never had big closeout games, or maybe it’s simply because the kid is only 22 years old with talents off the charts.
The key for OKC has to be the play of Kevin Durant. During the regular season he averaged 30.5ppg and 8rpg against the Grizzlies, but the Thunder did lose 3 of 4 games. However, the Thunder did not have Kendrick Perkins in the lineup for any those games. Can Perkins, Mohammed and Ibaka continue to protect the paint as well as they did against the Nuggets? Also, can they provide some much needed points in the paint?
The Key for the Grizzlies will obviously be the interior play of Gasol and Randolph. The Grizzlies will win the series if Gasol and Randolph average a combined 45 points and 25 or more rebounds. That’s the first part at least, because the Griz will have to hold Westbrook and Durant to an average of under 60 points per game for the entire series.
Will Gasol and Randolph average 45-25, or will Westbrook and Durant average over 60 points? I hate to go against Durant, but I think the Grizzlies are extremely confident and still high of their win against the Spurs. Durant will have to average over 35 points in this series along with Westbrook averaging over 25 points and 10 or more assist for the Thunder to beat the Grizzlies and I just don’t see that happening.
GRIZZLIES in 6
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) CHICAGO BULLS (62-20) vs (5) ATLANTA HAWKS (44-38)
The Chicago Bulls just got a lucky break as if they needed any, because they may be facing the Hawks without Kirk Hinrich in the lineup, due to a hamstring injury. Hopefully Kirk can return by the time the Hawks return home by game 3, if not, you can expect this to be a very quick series. Without Hinrich, who is an excellent defender, D-Rose will return back to his MVP form because there is no other player on the Hawks that can slow him down.
The key for the Bulls has to be the offensive output of Carlos Boozer. During the First Round, Carlos did not perform up to his $80 million contract the Bulls signed him to last summer. He did average 10.6 rebounds in five games, but only manage to score 10 points per game against Indy. Ironically, in two games against the Hawks in the regular seasons, Boozer performed even worse when he averaged 8.5ppg and 5rpg. If Boozer keeps playing terrible, the Bulls will be in a lot of trouble and his turf toe injury is sure to slow him down.
The Bulls will need another MVP-type performance out of Derrick Rose for the entire series if Boozer continues to play bad. Rose will also have to shoot better in this series. If his shooting percentage is in the high 30s like it was against the Pacers (37.1 percent) or the Hawks during the regular season (38.5 percent), the Bulls will have to rely on their defense and rebounding, which has not failed them yet. For the Bulls to lose Boozer will have to continue playing terrible, D-Rose will have to continue shooting in the high 30s, they will have to be outrebounded by Atlanta and at least three players from Hawks will have to dominate the series.
The key for the Hawks has to be Jamal Crawford, first and foremost. Can he duplicate the performance he had against the Magic, when he averaged 20.5 points per game? Assuming he does, Kirk Hinrich, the Hawks starting point guard will have to return by game 3. In addition to Crawford playing well, Josh Smith and Al Horford will have to outplay Boozer and Noah for the Hawks to upset the Bulls. Too many things have to go right for the Hawks while at the same time, everything will have to go wrong for the Bulls in order for us to see an upset in this series, which is I am picking Chicago to win this series.
BULLS in 6
(2) MIAMI HEAT (58-24) vs. (3) BOSTON CELTICS (56-26)
The Boston Celtics have one of if not the best half court offenses in the league, mainly because they have Rondo, their all-star point guard who pushes the ball in transition leading to wide open 3s for Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. The Celtics also used to have perhaps the best and most intimidating defense in the league when they had Kendrick Perkins. Shaq and Jermaine are still on board to fill that void, but though they may have size, they are far from the intimidating presence that Perkins was.
Two things must happen for the Celtics to win the series. First, Shaq and Jermaine must play a combine 40 plus minutes and be very effective both on offense and defense. A combined average of 20 points per game should suffice on offense. Defensively, they must combine to average 3 blocks and 15 or more rebounds. The problem with that is Shaq has been out for several months due to injuries so I don’t expect him to be very effective when he returns, at least not right away. The second key is obviously Rondo, the player referred to as the “head of the snake.” In this series, Rondo must average 12 or more points, 6 plus rebounds with over 14 assist for the entire series.
On the Miami side, Lebron is without question the key to the Heat winning the series. I expect him to average over 32-8-8 and shoot over 50 percent from the field. Anything less will be unacceptable, considering the Celtics have sent him on vacation in 3 of the last 4 years. One thing I will say, Lebron always looks to score against the Celtics, but in this series he will have to be efficient. The second key for the Heat will be the play of Chris Bosh. He must outplay Kevin Garnett and he might be able to by averaging 18 plus points and 10 or more rebounds. Third, Wade needs to overwhelm Allen defensively for the entire series. He needs to outplay him and he’s the better player, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t. Lastly, the Heat must turn Rondo into a scorer. If he averages over 14 assist for the series, that means the Celtics offense was in full gear, but if he averages 18 points with around 7 assists per game that means D-Wade and Lebron were able to shut down Pierce and Allen.
HEAT in 5
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)