There’s
always been one constant over the last 30 years and even before Moses Malone won
the Finals MVP in 1983 and that is, the best player in the series has always ended up
winning the championship and the MVP award. Strangely enough, this concept only
applies to the Finals. In the earlier
rounds, talent far outweighs team. For
example, in the Eastern Conference Semis, one could argue that the Knicks
Carmelo Anthony was the best player in the series, yet he ultimately lost to a
better team in the Indiana Pacers. A more prominent example that I'm sure most of
us can relate to, would be all those losses that Michael Jordan suffered to the
Pistons. Jordan was clearly the best player in most of those series, but the Pistons
were evidently the better team.
Teams that
make it to the NBA Finals are usually well-balanced and less reliant on one
player. By the time they make it to the
Finals, both teams are usually evenly matched, which is why the series always seems to be determined by the best player, the MVP. The Sixers Moses Malone was the best player
during the 1983 Finals, Bird and Magic in the 80s, Jordan and Olajuwon in the
1990s and more recently Shaq, Duncan, Billups, Wade, Parker, Pierce, Kobe, Dirk
and then Lebron. Even in 2011 when Lebron had emerged as the game’s best
player, Dirk won the MVP because he was the best player in that series. This always applies and never fails,
therefore, I don’t see this year’s Finals being any different.
For the Heat
to be successful, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Mike Miller and Haslem will have to
make shots. The Heat point guard combo
of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole will have to contain the Spurs Tony Parker
from penetrating the paint, while at the same time making open shots themselves. Bosh and Wade will have to combine for at
least 35ppg and 15rpg.
On the Spurs
side, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Matt Bonner and Gary Neal will have to make
shots. Manu Ginobili must outplay Wade, or at the very least play him to a standstill. Duncan and Splitter will have to protect the
paint and be a force both offensively and defensively. If the Spurs can do those things, they’ll put
themselves in a good position to win this series.
Now let’s
get down to the juice! This series will be won by the team that has the best
player on the floor. I repeat, not the
best player in the league, but the best player in this series. In short, this series will come down to Tony
Parker and Lebron James, the two best players in the playoffs thus far. The question then is which team has what it takes to limit the other team's star?
The Heat
will use Cole and Chalmers to slow down Parker as well as blitzing the
pick-and-roll every chance they get. If all fails, Lebron will have to take on
the assignment and though Parker claimed that he’s used to being guarded by
bigger players, I can assure you none of them have been as big or quick as
Lebron. I expect Parker to have a good series, not as great as the one he had
against the Memphis Grizzlies, but somewhere in the neighborhood of about 20ppg and 8apg.
For the Spurs, second-year forward Kawhi Leonard will start on Lebron
James and I expect him to do a decent job.
However, if you think the Pacers Paul George had fits, one can only
imagine pain Kawhi is about to endure from guarding
James. The Spurs coach Pop will definitely
command his team to double-team Lebron, because after the first quarter of the
NBA Finals it will become very apparent that Kawhi Leonard is simply no match
for the very determined Lebron James.
I expect the
Spurs coach Pop to outmaneuver and probably out coach the Heat coach Spo. I expect both Wade and Ginobili to play
better, but I will give Wade a slight edge in that match up. I expect Timmy and Splitter to average a
combined 22ppg and 12rpg, but their lack of true girth like the Pacers big men,
should allow Bosh to have a much better series. I’m predicting that Bosh will bounce out of
his slump and average at least 17ppg and 9rpg.
Both teams will hit open shots and this series will be highly contested,
but ultimately Lebron James will outplay Tony Parker and that is why I'm giving the edge to the Heat. I predict that
Lebron will average at least 30ppg 8rpg and 8apg in route to his second
straight Finals MVP and back-to-back titles.
HEAT IN 6
