The 2011 NBA Playoffs is finally here and it’s going to be very exciting! I expect the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks and Thunder to advance to the Semi-Finals. I predict that the Thunder will defeat the Spurs and the Lakers will defeat the Mavericks and meet in the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers will defeat the Thunder in game-7 and move on to the NBA Finals. In the East, I expect the Bulls, Heat, Celtics and Magic to advance to the Semi-Finals. I expect the Bulls to defeat the Magic and the Heat to defeat the Celtics and then face each other in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat will defeat the Bulls in game 6 and move on to face the Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Heat and Lebron James will defeat the Lakers in game 6 to win the NBA Championship.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) SAN ANTONIO SPURS (61-21) vs (8) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (46-36)
The Spurs and the Grizzlies split 4 games during the season with each team winning 2 games at home. If this trend continues in the playoffs, the Spurs would have game 7 at home. The Spurs biggest concern is the health of Manu Ginobili, who is expected to miss game 1. Ultimately, I expect Manu to play in the series, but going up against the Grizzlies Shane Battier and Tony Allen will be very challenging.
The key players for the Grizzlies will be Z-Bo, who averaged 23 points and 14.8 rebounds in 4 games against the Spurs in the regular season and O. J. Mayo, who has replaced Rudy Gay in the starting lineup since Gay’s injury. For the Grizzlies to win this series, Mayo will have to average over 22 points per game in the series and I doubt that will happen which is why I favor the Spurs.
The Key players for San Antonio are Manu and Tony Parker. If Manu is not close to 100 percent, then Parker will have to carry most of the load in the backcourt, which I believe he is capable of doing. I expect the Parker-Ginobili combo to average 40 or more points in the series, which should be enough to hold off the Griz.
PREDICTION: SPURS in 6
(2) LOS ANGELES LAKERS (57-25) vs (7) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (46-36)
The Lakers won all 4 games against the Hornets during the regular season and in three of those games, the Hornets had their former all-star forward David West in the lineup. West is expected to undergo surgery to repair a torn ACL, so he will not be in the lineup to challenge the Lakers big front line.
There is no reason to focus on the key players for this series, because unless the Hornets Chris Paul averages 30 or more points and 15 plus assist, the Hornets will not win the series. Of all the series in the playoffs, this one is the most unlikely to have an upset. I will be very surprised if the Hornets were even able to win a game in this series.
PREDICTION: LAKERS Sweep
(6) DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25) vs (3) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS (48-34)
I anticipate this series being an absolute dogfight and I expect it to go down to the wire. This is definitely going to be a 7-game series, but the Mavericks will end up being victorious. The acquisition of Gerald Wallace made the Blazers a better defensive team, especially on the wing, which is where the Mavericks Dirk Nowitzki lives. And it doesn’t stop there, because even if Dirk goes down low, he will be equally challenged by LaMarcus Aldridge.
The Key player for the Mavericks will have to be Tyson Chandler. In 3 games during the regular season, Chandler averaged 12.3 points and 8.7 rebounds against the Blazers and I expect him to average around the same in the series. If the Blazers are successful in slowing down Dirk, Chandler will have to pick up the slack. By that I mean, if Dirk averages say around 20 points, Chandler will have to average at least 15 points and over 10 rebounds to make up for the difference. I think he is capable of doing that.
The Key players for the Blazers will have to be LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Gerald Wallace. In order for the Blazers to upset the Mavericks two things with have to happen. First, their forward trio will have to average over 55 points and 20or more rebounds. Second, they will have to contain Dirk and Tyson Chandler.
PREDICTION: MAVERICKS in 7
(4) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27) vs (5) DENVER NUGGETS (50-32)
This is going to be a very exciting series, but I don’t think it is going to be as competitive as people think. I understand the Nuggets can score with the best of them, but the Thunder are on a mission and not having a go-to-player will prove to be too very difficult for the Nuggets. The Nuggets only chance will be to speed up the game, but regardless of that, I still expect the Nuggets to lose in 6 games.
The key players for the Nuggets will have to be their backcourt, Felton and Lawson. Like I said, for the Nuggets to beat the Thunder, they must speed up the game and it will come down to their two point guards.
As far as the Thunder goes, you don’t have to look any further than Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. I think Westbrook is probably more important, because he will determine the tempo of the game.
PREDICTION: THUNDER in 6
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) CHICAGO BULLS (62-20) vs (8) INDIANA PACERS (37-45)
The Indiana Pacers made the playoffs by winning only 37 games, the lowest win total since 2005. The Bulls on the other hand have Derrick Rose and Tom Thibodeau, my prediction for the NBA’s MVP and Coach of the Year Award respectively. I expect the Bulls to win this series convincingly, but the Pacer will get a win or probably two. During the regular season, the Bulls won 3 of 4 against the Pacers in convincing fashion and I expect this trend to continue.
The key players for the Pacers are Tyler Hansbrough and Darren Collison. Hansbrough averaged 20.5 points and made 57.1 percent of his field goal percentage in two games against the Bulls, while Collison struggled. If Hansbrough maintains his regular season average and Collison can figure out a way to average over 20 points, 8 plus assists and shoots at least 48 percent from the field, the Bulls will be in serious trouble. In all honesty, I don’t see that happening, but obviously that’s what it’s going to take for the Pacers to upset the Bulls.
The key players for the Bulls are obviously, Rose on the perimeter and Boozer and Noah on the interior. More importantly, their stifling defense will simply be too much for the Pacers to overcome.
PREDICTION: BULLS in 5
(2) MIAMI HEAT (58-24) vs. (7) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (41-41)
I think the best comment that I heard came from Philadelphia’s head coach Doug Collins, when he said his team must win at least 80 percent of the 50-50 loose balls in order for them to have a chance against the Heat. If they do this, the Sixers will win two games, but in reality the Heat are equally active on defense, which will make winning 80 percent of 50-50 balls almost impossible for an entire series.
I think the Sixers will win a game, but this is a 5-game series.
Once again there’s no reason to focus on key players here because the Sixers are simply outmatched by the Heat and you’ll have to be a Sixers fan to think otherwise. Andre Iguodala will have to outplay Lebron James for the Sixers to have any chance of upsetting the Heat. During the regular season Lebron averaged only 22.7 points against the Sixers, so if Lebron maintains his regular season average and Iguodala have a career series, then outplaying Lebron might be possible, though highly unlikely. The bigger problem is that the Sixers have absolutely no answer for D-Wade, who torched them for 30.7 points in 3 regular season games, while making 51.6 percent of his shots.
PREDICTION: HEAT in 5
(3) BOSTON CELTICS (56-26) vs (6) NEW YORK KNICKS (42-40)
The New York Knicks have two of the NBA’s most dynamic scorers in Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony, but that still didn’t stop the Celtics from beating the Knicks four straight times during the regular season. The Celtics stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, as the Knicks improved to move into the sixth seed. That said, the Knicks will win only one game in this series, and if Amare dominates, maybe they might be able to win two.
The key players for the Knicks are obviously Amare, Carmelo and Chauncey. In order for the Knicks to upset the Celtics, Amare and Carmelo will have to average a combined 60 or more points and over 18 rebounds. In addition, Chauncey will have to outplay the Celtics Rondo. Though it may be possible, I don’t expect that to happen, which is why I predict that the Celtics will win in 5 games.
The key player for the Celtics is Rondo. He has to turn things around in order for the Celtics to be successful. The Celtics may be good enough to advance to the Semi-Finals with Rondo playing average, but if they expect to advance past the Semis, Rondo will have to return back to the form he had post Kendrick Perkins trade.
PREDICTION: CELTICS in 7
(4) ORLANDO MAGIC (50-32) vs (5) ATLANTA HAWKS (44-38)
This series is the Eastern Conference version of the Blazers-Mavericks, in that it is going to be very physical and bruising. The Magic have their work cut out, but they have Dwight Howard, who I expect to win his third straight Defensive Player of the Year Award. The Hawks are very confident and why not? They won 3 of the 4 regular season games they played against the Magic and were very effective against Dwight Howard. In the 4 games, Howard averaged 19.3 points and 14.8 rebounds, but made only 43.1 percent of his shots. I don’t expect that trend to continue in the playoffs.
For the Hawks, it will come down to whether their center tandem of Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia can continue to shut down Dwight Howard with their defense and also, whether Joe Johnson and Al Horford will put up all-star type numbers. For the Hawks to upset the Magic, Johnson and Horford will have to average a combined 45 points plus points with 18 or more rebounds.
The Key players for the Magic are obviously Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson. I expect Dwight to play better. His field goal percentage is going to be over 50 percent for sure, but it’s Jameer Nelson that will ultimately be the difference. Nelson played in only 2 of their 4 regular season games, but I expect him to be at full strength during the playoffs.
PREDICTION: MAGIC in 7
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