Monday, April 2, 2012

NBA WIZARD 2011-2012 POWER RANKING: WEEK 15

RK LAST WK

1 (2) THUNDER 40-12
Last week Derrick Rose - the league's reigning MVP - endorsed Kevin Durant as the leading candidate to win the MVP Award this year. My first reaction was that Rose is jealous of Lebron and hates all the attention that Lebron gets, which is true, but I do agree that if the season ended today, Kevin Durant will win the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award. The Thunder are sporting a 6-game winning steak, led by Durant's 28.7ppg,10.3rpg on .578 percent shooting during that stretch.

2 (1) BULLS 42-12
The Bulls are still hanging on to the NBA's best record and that is with Derrick Rose missing the team's last 10 games. The Bulls have a 7-3 record without Rose over the last ten games, basically because they are the league's best defensive team, thanks to coach Thibodeau - the reigning coach of the year - and leading candidate to win the NBA's Coach of the Year Award for a second straight season.

3 (4) SPURS 36-14
I predicted at the beginning of the season that the Spurs would challenge OKC for the best record in the Western Conference, and despite injuries, the Spurs are only 3 games behind the Thunder for the best record in the West. The Spurs have are playing at a very high level and are currently sporting a 7-game winning streak and winners of 10 of their last 11 games. More importantly, Tim Duncan seems to be getting into playoff shape. Over the Spurs last 3 games, Duncan is averaging 22.3ppg and 10rpg.

4 (3) HEAT 37-14
The Heat are not playing well. Over the Heat last 10 games, Lebron numbers have plummeted from what they were during the first half of the season. His last ten game averages are 22.4ppg 6.7rpg 5.8apg on .492 percent shooting. For a second straight season, Lebron is on the verge of losing another very winnable MVP Award, except this time it will be to Kevin Durant and not Derrick Rose. Not surprisingly, the Heat have a 6-4 record over their last 10 games.

5 (6) LAKERS 33-20
The Lakers have not gotten off to the blazing start I anticipated when they acquired Ramon Sessions - their newly acquired point guard from Cleveland - but in the long run, his value will definitely show. The team is 5-4 since adding Sessions, who is averaging 11.8ppg, 5.6apg on .479 percent shooting field and .483 percent from 3s. Ultimately though, the Lakers will only go as far as Kobe will take them, or if he can truly trust his teammates. At times, trusting his teammates seems to be in question. Over the Lakers last 5 games, Kobe averaged 24.4ppg on 22.6 shot attempts while shooting a miserable .372 field goal percentage.

6 (9) CLIPPERS 31-21
The Clippers may have finally turn the corner and it all started with the performances of their two stars, CP3 and Blake Griffin. Chris Paul led the Clippers to a 5-game winning streak by averaging 21ppg and 11.6apg and Blake Griffin was right behind him with 22.2ppg and 10.4 rebounds over the last 5 games. What I found interesting was that Griffin shot attempts dropped from 16 per game to 13.6 during the winning steak, with a field goal percentage skyrocketing to .662 percent.

7 (14) CELTICS 30-22
Everyone will agree that the Bulls and Heat are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference, but the Celtics is the one team that can beat both of those teams in a series. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce combined to average 42.4ppg and 15.4rpg to lead the Celtics to their current 5-game winning streak. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but the the Celtics streak began when Allen went down with an ankle injury. I truly believe the Celtics will be the dark horse in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Watch out Miami and Chicago! The Celtics are coming.

8 (8) PACERS 31-21
If you take out the Pacers shocking 100-84 loss to the Nets, Danny Granger has been on an absolute tear. Over the Pacers last 4 games not counting the Nets loss, Granger averaged 25ppg on .507 percent shooting. The Pacers are currently the fifth seed in the East and I don't expect them to finish any lower than that.

9 (10) MAVERICKS 30-23
The Mavericks Jason Terry admitted that the Mavs are not the same team and clearly feels under appreciated because the Mavs did not offer him an extension after winning the championship, or even give him "a low ball offer," as he put it. Without Terry, the Mavericks would not have won the championship, so to hear him say this, tells me that even he doesn't feel 100 percent confident that this current Mavericks team will be able to repeat and I tend to agree with him.

10 (7) HAWKS 31-23
Josh Smith has been on a tear recently averaging 25.6ppg over the Hawks last 5 games, but the Hawks are on 2-3 during that stretch. Not to take anything away from Smith, but his 25.6ppg came on 22 shots per game. I like the fact that he's taken on the scoring initiative, but if he's going to take 22 shots a game, his average needs to be over 30 points per.

11 (5) MAGIC 32-21
The Magic are 4-6 over their last 10 games including a 104-101 loss to the Nuggets, a game in which Dwight Howard missed due to back spasms. Howard had the perfect opportunity to end up in New Jersey, but I guess he wanted to keep his consecutive streak of making the playoffs alive, something he wouldn't have done in New Jersey this year. But the promise of Brooklyn and a chance to play with Deron Williams and perhaps another star, was something he shouldn't have passed up.

12 (13) GRIZZLIES 28-22
After 5 losses in 6 games, the Grizzlies have turned things around a little bit by winning 3 of their last 4 games. Basically coach Collins felt obligated to Z-Bo, because of how well he played in last year's playoffs, so when Z-Bo returned from his injury Hollins played him a lot of minutes initially. Over the last 4 games though, Hollins has limited Z-Bo minutes and I agree with that move, at least until Z-Bo is 100 percent healthy and can contribute at a high level.

13 (17) NUGGETS 29-24
The Nuggets will be without their leading scorer Gallinari for another week or two, but that's the least of their problem. They are still the league's highest scoring team at 103.5 points per game which is great, but they are almost the worst defensive team and are 29th in league in opponents points allowed. I expect them to make the playoffs, but I don't expect them to make it pass the First Round in the Western Conference.

14 (18) KNICKS 27-26
The Knicks are winners of 8 of their last 10 games, but they are about to face a very difficult stretch in April. Not only will they be without Amare for 2-4 weeks, but their rising point guard Jeremy Lin will also be out for 6 weeks because of a small meniscus tear. The Knicks will be counting on point guard Baron Davis to fill in for Lin and Carmelo to pick up the scoring slack.

15 (11) SIXERS 29-23
There was a time when the Sixers were one of the top scoring teams early on in the season, but now they are ranked 22nd in scoring at 93.6 points per game. The one positive thing is their defense. Currently they lead the league in opponent points allowed at 87.8 points. Unfortunately their scoring slump has been in direct correlation with the team's record. Over the last 10 games the Sixers have averaged only 88.5 point per game and have a 4-6 record show for it.

16 (15) ROCKETS 28-25
Entering week 15, it appears that the race for the eighth and final playoff spot has become a 3-headed race between the Rockets, Suns and Jazz. Currently the Rockets are the eighth seed in the Western Conference and in an effort to hang on, coach Kevin Mchale inserted newly acquired veteran center Marcus Camby into the starting lineup over Samuel Dalembert. I support the move, because I believe it might just help the Rockets hold on to the eighth seed.

17 (16) SUNS 26-26
What a though time to lose two straight, but in the Suns defense, their last two losses came against the surging Spurs and Clippers. Unfortunately, the month of April will bring up huge challenges for the Suns, because 11 of their last 14 regular season opponents have a .500 or better record, not to mention 8 of their last 14 games will be on the road.

18 (12) JAZZ 27-26
The Jazz has a slightly easier schedule than the Suns to end the season. Nine of the 13 opponents have a .500 or better record, but two of those games are against the Suns in Utah. The schedule favors the Jazz over the Suns, but both teams are still looking up to the Rockets.

19 (21) BUCKS 24-28
I'm sure when the Bucks traded for Monte Ellis, they assumed his addition would guarantee them a playoff berth, but so far that simply hasn't been the case. Ellis is averaging 16.6ppg, 6.1apg on .419 percent shooting in the 9 games he's played and the Bucks are 5-4 during this stretch. The Bucks are currently 2.5 games behind the Knicks for the final spot and hope to gain some ground on the Knicks now that both Amare and Lin will be out for a month.

20 (19) TRAIL BLAZERS 25-28
The Blazers finished the month of March with a 6-11 record and are currently 3 games behind the Rockets for the last playoff spot in the West. Unfortunately, I don't see this team making up any ground in April. I expect the Blazers to miss the playoffs this year and to completely overhaul the team before the start of next season.

21 (20) TIMBERWOLVES 25-29
The Timberwolves Kevin Love is the best power forward in basketball, but the cynic that I am must point out the fact that his 26.5ppg comes on 19.3 shot attempts at a .451 shooting percentage from the field. In order for Love to step into super stardom, he must improve his field goal percentage to around 50 percent and make an extreme commitment on the defensive end.

22 (27) NETS 19-35
The Nets are sporting a 3-game winning streak and not getting Dwight Howard may be a blessing in disguise. The team still has all the draft picks they would have lost in a trade with the Magic, and one of those picks could end up being Anthony Davis, the consensus number one pick in this year's draft. Even if they don't draft Davis, they still have several picks, Brook Lopez, MarShon Brooks and Gerald Wallace to dangle in trades.

23 (26) PISTONS 19-33
The Pistons are definitely at the bottom of the pack in just about every statistical category. They are 28th in scoring at 89.9 and 27th in both rebounding and assist with 39.9 and 18.6 respectively. Fortunately for them, they have a decent mixture of veterans and young players, so their future may not be as bad as it looks now.

24 (22) WARRIORS 20-31
Steph Curry ankle! I don't mean to sound cruel, but I'm just sick and tired about hearing about Steph Curry's ankle. I truly believe the Warriors would have traded him, but his gimpy ankle had a lot of teams worried. If the offer still stand and the Celtics are willing to trade Rondo for Curry next season, the Warriors should definitely pull the trigger. If you're a Warriors fan, the draft is the only thing you have to look forward to, because all hopes making the playoffs this season ended about a week ago.

25 (24) KINGS 18-34
A 104-103 win over the Jazz in Utah ended a 4-game skid, but the Kings were back to their losing ways with a 111-99 loss to the Nets in their very next game. The one good news is Cousins continues to improve and over the last 5 games has been an absolute beast. He scored a career-high 38-points against the Rockets in Houston and might had ended up with 40 and the game winner if Marcus Thornton had passed him the ball when he had solid inside position, instead of forcing an ill-advised contested 3-pointer at the end of regulation. Anyhow, Cousins averaged 26.4ppg and 13.6rpg over the Kings last 5 games. Very impressive!

BOTTOM FEEDERS

26 (25) RAPTORS
Of the bottom 8 teams, the Raptors have perhaps the best overall team stats, thanks to their 15th ranked defense which allows opponents 95.5ppg. Even though they are one of the lowest scoring teams (26th) at only 91.8ppg, they rank 12th in the league in assist at 21.4 assist per game. They could be a surprise team next season if they address their scoring woes this summer.

27 (23) CAVALIERS 17-33
Nothing new to report out of Cleveland except for the stats of Kyrie Irving, the clear-cut favorite Rookie of the Year winner. Irving is averaging 18.9ppg, 5.7apg, 4.0rpg on .471, .419, .872 as in field goal, 3-point and free-throw percentages. His PER is 21.66 and in my opinion, is already a top 7 point guard and he's only a rookie.

28 (28) HORNETS 13-40
After not playing for almost the entire season, I will be shocked to see any team offering Gordon a max-deal this summer. I expect him to re-sign with the Hornets for an average of around $10 to $12 million, which will put Kaman out of contention. I don't expect the Hornets to sign Kaman when he becomes a free agent this summer, because the league - the current owners of the Hornets - clearly want to keep the cap flexibility for the new owners. Look for them to re-build through the draft as they do have a ton of draft picks including theirs from this year.

29 (29) WIZARDS 12-40
If anyone had told me before the season started that Kyrie Irving would have better numbers than John Wall, I would have thought they were crazy. The only category Wall leads Irving is assist at 7.8 a game. I'm not given up on Wall, not by a long shot, because I still think he could be a top 5 point guard in two season, but this season has clearly been a disappointment.

30 (30) BOBCATS 7-43
The Charlotte Bobcats owner Michael Jordan was quoted saying he is "100 percent committed to the Bobcats." Of course is! What is he suppose to say? Obviously everyone who knows basketball knows that there are three paths a team can take. Either you really good, so you become a perennial championship contender. Or, you are in the middle of the pack, meaning you pretend to compete for a championship, but deep down you know you're not good enough and most teams are on this path. The last path is to tank a season and hope for a franchise changing player and in the Bobcats case, that player will be Kentucky's Anthony Davis.

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