EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) CHICAGO BULLS (50-16) VS (1) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (35-31)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
BULLS 76ERS
2 WINS 1
89.0 PPG 89.7
37.0 3-PT% 22.9
15.3 TO 9.7
Players from the Sixers took a hit for saying they wanted to play the Chicago Bulls in the First Round, because they felt they matched up better with the Bulls than the Heat. For one, Rose is injured, so the Bulls may not be at full strength. Secondly, the Heat destroyed the Sixers during the regular season, so of course the Sixers wanted no part of the Heat. That said, the playoffs is a totally different animal and the Bulls are a serious championship contender and not a pretender like the Sixers, so I expect a very quick series. If Rose plays at 80 percent, this series will be over in 5 games. If Rose doesn't play, or even if he subpar performances, the series would probably go 6 games at the very most.
Bulls in 5
(2) MIAMI HEAT (46-20) VS (7) NEW YORK KNICKS (36-30)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
HEAT KNICKS
3 WINS 0
98.0 PPG 87.3
47.3 FG% 39.0
24.4 3-PT% 37.3
44.7 PTS IN PAINT 26.7
Chances are you fall in one of two categories - a Knicks fan or a Heat hater -- if you are predicting a Knicks upset in this series. If you are not in one of those categories, then there's a high probability that you were mesmarized by the play of Carmelo Anthony in the month of April, during which time Carmelo averaged 29.8ppg and 7.3rpg on .495 shooting to lead the Knicks to a 8-4 records in the 12 games he played.
The only problem is Carmelo will be guarded by Lebron James, the league's best perimeter defender and he too will have to exert a ton of energy trying to guard Lebron. In order for the Knicks to pull an upset, Carmelo will have to average the kind of numbers he did in April. Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler will have to dominate the paint offensively and more importantly on the defensive end. The Knicks will have to shoot over 40 percent from the 3-point line. And lastly, the Knicks will have to make the Heat a jump shooting team and limit their transition opportunities. Basically, the Knicks have to do too many things right and I just don't see that happening.
Heat in 6
(3) INDIANA PACERS (42-24) VS (6) ORLANDO MAGIC (37-29)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
PACERS MAGIC
1 WINS 3
91.0 PPG 94.8
25.8 3-PT% 39.3
88.2 FT% 66.3
41.5 REB 39.0
You can pretty much throw out the stats from the regular season and don't even attempt to use them as a measuring stick, because without Dwight Howard, the Orlando Magic is a completely different team. The Magic get their points in three ways. First, by Dwight Howard dominating the paint. Second, from dribble penetration from point guard Jameer Nelson and both of the first two ways leads to their third and favorite way to score, which is from the 3-point line. With Dwight out, the Magic will miss the constant double-teaming he demanded, which led to wide open 3-pointers. Their only hope of getting wide open 3s now, will have to come from dribble penetration, mainly from Jameer Nelson. Nelson will have to average at least 30ppg and 10apg on 50 percent shooting from the field and 40 percent from 3s. If he average those numbers, the Magic have a chance, but I'll put the likelihood of that happening at less than 10 percent.
Pacers in 5
(4) BOSTON CELTICS (39-27) VS (5) ATLANTA HAWKS (40-36)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
CELTICS HAWKS
2 WINS 1
86.3 PPG 86.3
43.0 FG% 43.5
43.0 REB 41.7
17.3 TO 17.3
These two teams are very close in most statistical categories, especially when they match up against each other. During their three regular season matchups, their field goal percentage, rebounds and turnovers are essentially identical, with both teams scoring 259 points. Unfortunately for the Hawks, Al Horford - their all-star center from last season -- is out with an injury until next season. If he were in the lineup, I would've given the edge to the Hawks, but as it stands, I believe the Celtics just have more weapons, which is why I'm picking them to win the series. The Celtics have one more run in them, so unless Josh Smith averages 30ppg, 8 or more rebounds and shoot over 52 percent from the floor, I cannot see the Hawks winning this series. However, I do see this series being very close and going the distance.
Celtics in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) SAN ANTONIO SPURS (50-16) VS (8) UTAH JAZZ (36-30)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
SPURS JAZZ
3 WINS 1
102.0 PPG 96.5
46.1 FG% 42.8
39.8 3-PT% 27.8
40.5 REB 43.5
If the Jazz are going to win a game in this series, it will have to be game 1, or game 3 when they return home from San Antonio, or else they are going to get swept. The Spurs are simply on a mission and there is nothing the Jazz can do about it. I mean, can Devin Harris outplay the Spurs Tony Parker? Definitely not and that will have to happen for the Jazz to have any chance of upsetting the Spurs. The Jazz will need a combined 35ppg and 20 or more rebounds from Al Jefferson and Paul Millshap, and Harris will have to outplay Parker, in order for the Jazz to be able to upset the Spurs and that is simply not going to happen.
(2) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (47-19) VS (7) DALLAS MAVERICKS (36-30)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
THUNDER MAVERICKS
3 WINS 1
95.3 PPG 94.8
43.8 FG% 42.3
44.8 REB 39.8
17.8 TO 13.5
This series is going to surprise a lot of folks who think the Thunder are just going to walk over the wounded Mavericks. I expect the Thunder to advance, but rest assure this is going to be a long series. Jason Kidd is a great player, a future hall-of-famer without question, but he is going to get exposed by the super-quick, super-athletic Russell Westbrook. Kevin Durant is going to neutralize anything that Dirk will do and soon-to-be Six Man of the Year James Harden and defensive stalwart Serge Ibaka are going outplaythe Mavericks Jason Terry, Vince Carter and Shawn Marion. The only way the Mavericks win this series is if Dirk and Jason Terry combine for an average of over 50ppg and Shawn Marion completely shuts down the Kevin Durant, the NBA scoring leader for the third straight season.
Ultimately, losing Tyson Chandler and Deshawn Stevenson will simply be too much to overcome. The defending champions will put up a resiliant fight, but in the end, the Thunder talent and youth will prevail.
(3) LOS ANGELES LAKERS (41-25) VS (6) DENVER NUGGETS (38-28)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
LAKERS NUGGETS
3 1
94.5 PPG 93.5
45.6 FG% 44.3
46.5 REB 40.0
9.0 FASTBREAK 21.0
From the looks of things, Metta World Peace is going to miss the entire First Round, which I'm anticipating will go six games. Imagine if the Lakers swept the Nuggets, that means MWP would miss the first two games of the Semi Finals and that would be devastating. The Nuggets will lose this series because they simply have no answer for the Lakers two 7-footers. The Nuggets best chance of winning the series is if coach Karl outsmart the Lakers head coach Mike Brown. He can accomplish this by forcing the Lakers to play small-ball, but barring foul trouble, I don't see how he'll be able to keep Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum off the floor.
(4) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (41-25) VS (5) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (40-26)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
GRIZZLIES CLIPPERS
1 WINS 2
90.0 PPG 94.7
42.4 FG% 46.1
42.3 REB 36.3
34.7 PTS IN PAINT 39.3
Maybe it's my love and respect for Chris Paul's game, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on CP3 leading his team to the Western Conference Semis. The Clippers would have had home court advantage had they not lost 3 of their last 4 regular season game, but now they just got to earn it the hard way. The Clippers Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan must dominate their matchup against Zack Randolph and Marc Gasol. If the Clippers bigs dominate the paint, they will win the series, because if the games are close down the stretch, the Clippers have CP3, one of the top 5 closers in the game.
I understand the Grizzlies have size and they are definitely a though minded team, especially since head coach Lionel Hollins took over, but CP3 is capable of controlling the game in ways that no one can and certainly no one the Grizzlies roster.
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