Lebron James will make his long awaited announcement later today and I believe his choices are between four teams, the Cavaliers, Bulls, Knicks and Miami. I would have included New Jersey but, I think the Nets lost out when Carlos Boozer committed to signing with the Bulls.
In order to make a prediction, I think it is imperative to understand what is fundamentally important to Lebron James. I think his motivation can be categorized into two parts. First, he wants to be a billionaire. Secondly, he wants to win multiple championships. For as important as a championship may be to Lebron, I think equally important is his drive to be a billionaire. I strongly believe he will pick a team that gives him the best chance to accomplish both.
MIAMI HEAT
The Miami Heat gives Lebron the second best chance after Chicago to win a championship but, even he knows pairing with Wade and Bosh will only diminish the Lebron Brand. I’ve said all along, I will be completely shocked if Lebron decides to go to Miami. No matter what spin the media puts on it, the fact remains that Bosh choose Miami over Cleveland, Wade over Lebron and for less money. For as egotistical as Lebron is, I just can’t see him joining Bosh in Miami after that.
In terms of being a billionaire, I see Chicago and of course New York as two places that gives Lebron a much higher chance of becoming one than Miami.
NBAWIZARD CONCLUSION
Miami gives Lebron the third best chance of being a billionaire and the second best chance of winning an nba championship. Assuming that 4 is the highest number for each category, I will assign the number 3 for winning a championship and the number 2 for being a billionaire, a total of 5 points to the Miami Heat.
CHICAGO BULLS
If Lebron James joins the Chicago Bulls, they would be the favorite to win the nba championship, especially with the addition of Carlos Boozer. In actuality, Boozer is a better fit for Lebron at the power forward position than both Amare and Chris Bosh. Amare and Bosh may be more athletic but, Boozer is a better rebounder, a better post up player and a better jump shooter than both of them. Not to mention, the Bulls already have Rose and Noah. The Bulls without question, gives Lebron the best chance to win a championship as of right this moment.
Next to New York, Chicago also gives Lebron the second best chance of becoming a billionaire, which is the second requirement for Lebron.
NBAWIZARD CONCLUSION
The Bulls get 4 points for winning a championship and 3 points for being a billionaire, for a total of 7 points. It would appear that the Chicago Bulls should be Lebron’s choice if indeed his two concerns are winning a championship and becoming a billionaire.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
It’s really sad to say, but the Cleveland Cavaliers gives Lebron the least probability of achieving both of his goals. The only thing the Cleveland Cavaliers have over those other teams is the home court factor. Lebron is from nearby Akron, Ohio and maybe that might prove to be more important than winning a championship or becoming a billionaire in the near future. If Lebron does re-up with Cleveland, I will expect him to sign for two maybe three years max with the Cavaliers.
NBAWIZARD CONCLUSION
If Lebron re-signs with the Cavs, I think he would be doing so with one thing in mind and that is the hope that the Cavs eventually trade for Chris Paul. If the Hornets current owner does not sell the team, I think CP3 will push for a trade to Cleveland. The Cavs may have to take back Okafor’s remaining 4 years/$52 million contract in order to entice the Hornets but, if the Cavs are able to pair up Lebron and Paul, a championship might not be too far behind. The only problem is, everything is based on the “if” factor. As is stands, I will give the Cavs a 1 for winning a championship and a 1 for Lebron becoming a billionaire for a total of a measly 2 points.
NEW YORK KNICKS
As of today, the Knicks don’t seem to be in the running for a championship but, unlike many skeptics out there, I believe they could actually give Lebron the best chance to win a championship with a few strategic moves. In addition to signing Lebron, the Knicks have three more aces up their sleeves and if played perfectly, could propelled them ahead of the Bulls and Heat to give Lebron the best chance of winning a championship. David Lee could be signed and traded. Eddy Curry’s $11.3 million expiring contract could be traded and the Knicks still have the $5.8 million mid level exception that could be used to bring in a second tier player. What does all of this mean?
NBAWIZARD CONCLUSION
The Knicks could sign and trade David Lee for Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas or CP3, with CP3 being the least likely. I strongly believe the Spurs would unload Tony Parker for David Lee for two reasons. First, Tony is scheduled to make $13.5 million next season and is in the last year of his contract. He’s made it known that he loves New York so rather than simply losing him to free agency, I think the Spurs would gladly trade for David Lee to help Tim Duncan down in the paint. Secondly, the Spurs can afford to move Tony due to the development of George Hill. I think the Knicks should have really pushed for this trade but then again, maybe it’s in the works.
Trading Eddy Curry’s $11.3 million expiring contract for Gilbert Arenas could also be an option for the Knicks. If the Knicks went that route, than I would look for them to sign and trade David Lee to the Mavericks for Caron Butler and Brandon Haywood. The Knicks could actually end up with Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Lebron James, Amare Stoudemire and Brandon Haywood. The Knicks would essential have a Washington Wizards reunion with the addition of Lebron and Amare.
If the Knicks sign and trade David Lee for Parker, than the Knicks would have Lebron, Amare and Tony Paker as their big three. They would then use their mid level exception to sign Brandon Haywood. They would still have Curry’s $11.3 million expiring contract to dangle in a trade for a shooter and a backup power forward center.
The bottom line is simply getting Lebron does not make the Knicks a championship contender but, with a few strategic moves, this team would have an even better chance of winning the championship than the Heat and the same chance as the Bulls, which is why I give them a 3 for winning a championship. This number is based solely on their projected lineup based on their ability to sign and trade David Lee for Tony Parker or Brandon Haywood and Caron Butler as the first option. Or, their second option of trading Eddy Curry’s $11.3 million expiring contract for Gilbert Arenas.
In terms of being a billionaire, I give the Knicks a perfect 4. I think Lebron will get more endorsements in New York. I expect Lebron to make $25 million more annually from endorsements just from playing in New York. I also expect Lebron to invest in MSG stocks, which just went up by 6% today. Can you imagine what it would be when the Knicks win a championship?
NBAWIZARD PICK
If Lebron James wants to win a championship and wants to become a billionaire, then I think the New York Knicks gives him the best chance. The Chicago Bulls gives him the second best chance of accomplishing both feats. The Heat would be third with the Cavs giving him the worst odds of accomplishing his dreams.
If we are basing everything on the current state of each team as of now, then the following can be said. The Bulls roster gives Lebron the best chance of winning a championship right now. The Knicks gives Lebron the best chance to become a billionaire. Cleveland is home and maybe that is more important than being a billionaire right now especially, if the Cavs can pry away CP3 from New Orleans. Lebron will not join Bosh and Wade in Miami, because Bosh chose Wade over him. The New Jersey Nets was my sleeper team to get Lebron but, I think Carlos Boozer signing with the Bulls without giving New Jersey a chance to counter offer may have sealed their fate.
I believe at 9:15 P.M EST today Lebron James will announce to the world that he is joining Amare Stoudemire in New York City.
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