In less than 17 hours, the nba free agent frenzy will go into overdrive with every team being very active to some degree. I know all the emphasis is being put on teams with cap room, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see even more trades than free agent signings this summer. For now though, the focus has to be on the Knicks, Nets, Bulls, Heat, Clippers, Suns, and of course the Cavs.
KNICKS
Of all the teams involved and looking to make a splash in this year’s free agency, it would be fair to say that the New York Knicks have made the most sacrifice to prepare for this moment. The Knicks have $34 million dollars to spend with two options in mind.
Option One
The Knicks will try to convince Lebron James, Bosh or Amare and Joe Johnson to accept a contract starting at $11 million with stock options in the Madison Square Garden. I would be shock if they can pull this off, which is why I believe they might have to result to their second option.
Option Two
If the Knicks fail in their attempt to sign all three free agents, I look for them to offer Joe Johnson and Amare Stoudemire max contracts. Both players played for the Knicks head coach Mike D’Antoni in Phoenix but, that was before Joe Johnson blossomed into the player that he is now. They would also have the option of signing and trading David Lee as well as, trading the expiring contract of Eddy Curry.
NBA WIZARD OPTION
The Knicks could offer Lebron James and Chris Bosh maximum contracts with the intent of signing and trading David Lee to either the Spurs for Tony Parker, the Hornets for Chris Paul or, the Wizards for Gilbert Arenas. Gilbert could be had for sure, followed by Tony perhaps with Chris Paul being the most difficult to get. The problem with this is that the Knicks would have to sign Lebron and Bosh before making the trade. This might be a tough sell because there is no guarantee that the Knicks can get any of those point guards. Also, there’s several other team out there that already have better rosters in place. If the Knicks pulls this off, they would have a roster of Lebron, Bosh and either Arenas or Parker. The Knicks also have Eddy Curry’s $11 million expiring contract to dangle in a trade if needed.
NETS
The New Jersey Nets basically traded forward Yi Jianlian $4 million contract to the Wizard for Quinton Ross in an obvious attempt to free up enough cash in order to make a run at two max free agents. Even though most observers in the league believe that the Heat and the Bulls have a better chance of getting the top two free agents(Lebron and Bosh), I think this recent trade demonstrated that the Nets have a huge goal in mind and might emerge come Thursday as the team everyone should be afraid of.
Option One
The Nets can pretty much sign two max free agents as the result of trading Yi. The question is why would they go out of their way to create the extra $3 million cap space if they were actually thinking about signing David Lee or, Carlos Boozer or, Joe Johnson? I expect the Nets owner and his entourage to make a max offer to both Lebron and Bosh. The Nets would argue that they have Brook Lopez, already one of the top five centers in the league. The Bulls, Knicks and Heat do not have any center or power forward on their rosters that is half as good as Brook Lopez. Not to mention, the Nets have Derrick Favors, the third overall pick from this year’s draft along with first time all-star point guard Devin Harris.
Option Two
If the Nets fail to get Lebron and Bosh, I believe their next option would be to go after Joe Johnson and Dirk Nowitzki. With Dirk, they would get a power forward that can stretch the floor and allow Brook Lopez all the room he needs to operate down low. I believe Prokhorov is just the kind of owner that could lure Dirk away from Dallas. He reminds me of the Mavericks owner Mark Cuban but, he’s worth $13 billion compared to Cuban’s $1.3 billion. Prokhorov is worth ten times more than Cuban and his personality is even more mystical and might be intriguing to Dirk.
NBA WIZARD OPTION
Either option one or two could work but, as we all know, getting the first option would be winning the sweepstake of the draft. In addition, I would be looking to package the third pick along with Devin Harris for a play making type of point guard. Obviously Chris Paul would be ideal if they can get him.
BULLS
The Chicago Bulls made a bold move by trading Kirk Hinrich and the 17th pick on draft day for basically nothing, a new trend permeating the league, in an attempt to be more formidable in the Lebron James sweepstakes. Rather than wait and hope to trade Lou Deng for Bosh in some form of a sign and trade, the Bulls took a proactive approach by trading Hinrich.
Option One
The Bulls could offer Lebron and Bosh deals starting at around $1.5 million shy of the maximum contract. They could also offer Deng to the Toronto Raptors in a sign and trade for Bosh. If the Bulls hadn’t traded Hinrich, I think the Raptors would have stubbornly asked the Bulls to include Noah. Now the Bulls have all the leverage. A sign and trade deal will allow Bosh to get a 6 years/$125 million contract as oppose to the 5 year/$90 million he would get if he signs with the Bulls directly, with a starting salary of around $15 million. The Raptors could get Deng in return for Bosh or nothing, which is why I expect to see the Raptors and Bulls engage in a sign and trade if Bosh decides to play for Chicago.
NBA WIZARD OPTION
If the Bulls do not get Lebron and Bosh, I think Joe Johnson and hopefully Dirk would be the next best thing. If they can’t get Dirk, then I look for them to go after Joe and Carlos Boozer. In Boozer, they would finally have their much needed low post player. With Joe Johnson and Derrick Rose, they would have one of the top three back courts in the nba immediately. There is only one Lebron James, so it would probably be in the team’s best interest to move on to this option if it seems like Lebron is not interested. The longer they wait, the less likely they would be able to pull off this option. I guess that’s a risk they must calculate.
HEAT
According to Stephen A. Smith, there was a recent free agent summit between Lebron, Bosh and Wade in which the three of them discussed the possibility of playing together in Miami. It sounds good, but like every rumor this summer, I’ll take it with a grain of salt. I will go on record and say right now, that I will be completely shocked if Lebron James opts to play with Wade in Miami. Stephen A. Smith and everybody who joined the Heat bandwagon over the last few days needs to slow down because there is no way Lebron is leaving Cleveland to go and play with Dwyane Wade. Anyway, let’s evaluate this option along with the rest of the Heat options.
Option One
The Heat are $4 million away from being able to offer Lebron, Bosh and Wade maximum contracts. This figure can be attained by trading Michael Beasley. The only reason Beasley hasn’t been traded yet, is because the Heat have yet to receive a commitment from Lebron and Bosh. Obviously this would be their dream option.
Option Two
I believe the Heat will go after Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson if they are unable to get Lebron. This move should still make them a contender, but something tells me wherever Lebron goes, Bosh will follow
NBA WIZARD OPTION
Like everybody else I like the Heat’s first and second option but, I think if the Heat are unable to get Lebron and Bosh then going after Carlos Boozer and Joe Johnson should serve them well. This move allows them to keep Beasley and move him if they choose to.
CLIPPERS
Don’t feel sorry for the poor L.A. Clippers. What is it, two successful seasons in 26 years? Unfortunately it all falls back on their penny pinching owner who has vowed not to sell the team. Fortunately for them, I think the Clips are finally about to experience some sunshine in sunny California. If Blake Griffin returns and is 100% healthy, he could easily average 18 or more points with 10 or more rebounds. You add in Baron David and Chris Kaman and all of sudden, the Clippers are a playoff team. In addition to that, the Clippers have $16 million to spend, so the question is, how are they going to spend it?
Option One
The Clippers are going to make a major push for Joe Johnson. I think rather than wasting their time on Lebron, they might just offer Joe Johnson the maximum contract from day one. The way I see it, the Clippers will have the rookie of the year next season in Blake Griffin. So adding Joe Johnson would make them a completely different team. I believe if Griffin is healthy, the addition of Joe makes the Clippers not only a playoff team, but also a playoff contender in the West. My only concern right now is who will fill the Clippers vacant head coaching position.
NBA WIZARD OPTION
Let’s assume once again that the Clippers strike out and are unable to land Joe Johnson. I believe they could probably end up with the Celtics Paul Pierce. Obviously they can’t offer him his current salary of $20 million but, they could offer him a four year deal starting at $16 million. I think the Celtics are reluctant to offer Pierce a long term deal, which could open the door and allow the Clippers to get him. I think Paul will welcome the opportunity to return to his hometown back in L.A.
OTHERS WORTH MENTIONING
I expect the Phoenix Suns to re-sign Amare Stoudemire. I don’t see the Bulls or the Nets offering him the maximum contract. As far as the Heat goes, I think they would much rather have Bosh or even Boozer at a cheaper price than Amare. The Clippers already have Blake Griffin, so they don’t need Amare. The only other team that I see competing with the Suns is the New York Knicks but, in the end I think he will end up re-signing with his current team, the Phoenix Suns.
I expect Dirk Notwitzki to re-sign with his current team the Dallas Mavericks. I strongly feel his loyalty to the only city he’s ever played for and to Mark Cuban, who has always believed in him, will be the deciding factors that will lead him to re-signing with the Mavs. If the Nets are unable to get Lebron, I think they could and should make a run at Dirk. I believe the Nets are the one team that could challenge the Mavericks for Dirk’s services.
Unlike the other free agents that are really opting out to see what’s out there, I think Paul Pierce is opting out for one reason only and that is to demand a longer contract. I expect him to play the Clippers against the Celtics. The Clippers poses the greatest challenge to the Celtics and will probably realize that within a few days.
The Cleveland Cavaliers a stuck between a rock and a hard place. Hiring Byron Scott will be a mistake. I am going on record to say he is overrated. I hope Brian Shaw gets the opportunity, but then again regardless of who the Cavaliers next head coach is, the fact remains that they have done nothing to retain Lebron James. The Cavaliers are hoping and praying that Lebron decides to stay in Cleveland. I know Dan Gilbert is a great owner and will spend whatever it takes to make the Cavs a contender. Unfortunately the Cavs have three things against them. One, they are over the cap. Secondly, they only have $7 million combined in expiring contracts between Delonte West and Anthony Parker. Third, they are stuck with Antawn Jamison 2 year/$28 million contract.
The only hope for the Cavs would be to find a team that really wants to dump a contract in exchange for Jamison, but who? The Raptors knowing that Bosh is on his way out could send him to Cleveland along with Hedo for Jamison, Delonte West and Mo Williams. The problem is, Bosh will only approve the trade if Lebron returns to Cleveland and even then, he still might not want to play in Cleveland.
I think Dan Gilbert has done his best to put his team in the position to win, but unfortunately his lasting legacy may be the owner that let Lebron James walk away from Cleveland.
If you think the last week has been crazy, then you have no idea what is about to unfold in the next 24 hours and beyond. I expect to see a frenzy like never before in the history of nba free agency. Rumors and speculations are about to rule the nba world like nothing we’ve ever seen. When the dust clears and everything settles, the 2010-11 NBA season will go down as one of the most exciting seasons in NBA history and it all begins in 16 hours.
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