NBA WIZARD 2012 NBA FINALS PREDICTION

2012 NBA FINALS

(2) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER  (47-19)  VS.  (2) MIAMI HEAT  (46-20)

The dream series has finally arrived.  Kobe vs. Lebron never materialized, so Durant vs. Lebron will be the most imposing personal matchup since Jordan vs. Drexler in the 1992 NBA Finals.  However, there are many other intriguing factors in this series.  Miami's "big 3" vs. OKC's "big 3" will be the second deciding factor next to Lebron vs. Durant, because regardless of what happens between Lebron and Durant, the other two stars, (Bosh and Wade) vs. (Westbrook  and Harden) will be very key in determining the winner of this series.  The final determining factor, or the X-factor, will come down to what I call "the Others."  For Miami, (Haslem, Alexander, Chalmer and Battier), for OKC (Ibaka, Perkins, Collison and Sefolosha).  With that said, let's start with the Durant vs. Lebron Matchup, which I believe will be the key to this series.

Durant vs. Lebron
For their careers, Lebron has a 12-4 record against Durant, but keep in mind, most of this came when the Thunder weren't that good.  The gap has closed over the years, as evident by the team's 1-1 record this season, but for argument sake, I felt it was worth pointing out the 12-4 record.

The reason I wanted to point this out, is to show that Lebron has dominated his personal matchup against Durant.  In this year's post season, Lebron is averaging 30.8ppg, 9.6rpg, 5.1apg on 50.8 percent shooting while Durant is averaging 27.8ppg, 7.9rpg, 4.2apg on 50.5 percent shooting.  I anticipate Lebron winning this matchup, even though it will probably be by a hair.  I don't expect Lebron to dominate this matchup, but I certainly expect him to win it.  The reason this is important, is because if you go back 20 to 30 years, the NBA champion has always had the best player in the series.  To be honest this is the key reason I believe the Heat will win the championship.  I don't see how OKC wins, if Lebron ends up being the best player in the series.  Then again, there are other factors, that could sway this series.

Miami's Big 3 vs OKC Big 3 
Well, we can't discuss the big 3's of both teams without including Lebron and Durant and I've already stated who I believe will win that matchup.  However, that leaves (Bosh and Wade) vs. (Westbrook and Harden).  On the face, it looks like OKC has this matchp won, simply because both Westbrook and Harden are very healthy, unlike Wade (drained knees) and Bosh (abdominal strain).  The problem with this, is Westbrook has been inconsistent despite being healthy, whereas despite health issues, Wade numbers have been slightly better.  In the Post season, Westbrook is averaging 21.7ppg, 5.1rpg and 5.1apg on .436 percent shooting, while Wade is averaging 22.9ppg, 5.0rpg and 4.1apg on .47 percent shooting).  Their numbers are fairly similar, but it obvious that Wade's are slightly better.  In order for OKC to win the "big 3" matchup, Harden will have to completely outplay Bosh to the tune of a 22ppg average or higher, with Bosh averaging less than 15ppg in the series and I simply don't see this happening.

The Others
Without question, OKC wins this matchup hands down.  The addition of Ibaka, gives the Thunder a "big 4" and once you add his production to Perkins (the paint clogger), Sefolosha (the perimeter defender) and Collison (the banger), it makes it very easy to pick the OKC others.  I like Chalmers, Haslem and Battier, but I don't see them outplaying OKC's others.

Conclusion
I'm picking Lebron to win the Durant-Lebron matchup and I'm picking Miami's "big 3" over OKC's "big 3," but the others could determine this series, or perhaps not.  In order for Lebron to win his personal matchup and for Miami's "big 3" to win that matchup, two things will have to happen.  One, Lebron and Wade will have to outplay Durant and Westbrook.  Two, OKC's others will have to be ineffective on the defensive end against Miami.  Obviously Perkins, Ibaka, Sefolosha and Collison are known for their defense and if they play well, Durant and Westbrook will end up winning their respective matchups between Lebron and Wade.  In order for Wade and Lebron to win this matchup, which is what I am predicting, OKC others will have to be somewhat ineffective on defense.

I simply don't see how Miami loses this series if Lebron and Wade outplays Durant and Westbrook, which is why I am picking the Heat to win this series.

Heat in 6